Impact of Union Budget on the Indian Retail sector

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After the big bang reform of allowing up to 51% FDI in multi-brand retail, a lot of action was expected in the retail sector. Surprisingly, we have seen just interest & no concrete action on part of major global retailers; Wal-Mart & TESCOs of the world are in no hurry to enter in to the bylanes of Indian marketplace.

The economy is sluggish with projections of GDP growth slowing down to ~5% levels. In such scenario, sentiment in the retail sector is bound to be low and a lot of expectations were built around the budget.

In this backdrop let us analyze the union budget 2013-14 and what does it mean for the Indian retail sector:

The Positives first:

  1. Basic excise & service tax rates were not increased. It is a status quo & a kind of relief for the retail sector as there were rumors that the rates could be increased from 12% to 14%.
  2. Excise duty exemptions were provided to branded readymade garments, countervailing duties were reduced on hulled Oats (from 30% to 15%).
  3. Rural economy is bound to get a fillip, as the outlay for rural economy has increased significantly in terms of NAREGA, Food Security bill(~10000 Cr) & agri credits. This infusion of money in rural economy will give rise to rural consumerism. This is a positive not only for rural retail but also for the adjoining tier 2/3 cities.

Now, let’s see the negatives:

  1. No Roadmap was given for GST implementation. The current CST regime is a major roadblock for the sector; it increases the business complexities, inventories & in-efficiencies in the supply chain. GST alone can unleash a fresh lease of life for the whole sector. It will also make India a much attractive market for FDI investment.
  2. No announcement on giving Industry status to the retail sector. Getting the same will ensure a much higher focus on sector’s issues, better financing & insurance options etc.
  3. Royalty & franchise fee will be taxed at 25% (vs the earlier rate of 10%), this will not only have an impact on current setup but will also create hindrance for the entry of more global brands to India.
  4. Mobile phones that sells at more than 2000 Rs (by number of pieces sold, this is just ~30% of the market, while in value this will be more than 80%) will attract an excise of 6% now, similarly excise duty has been increased on Cigarettes and SUVs. From the retail sector point of view, mobile retailing has emerged as a big business. Several Indian brands like Micromax, LAVA etc have made impressive progress by marketing imported mobiles. Instead of any support, this budget poses a great threat to them. This duty might give a push to the illegal trade of imported Chinese mobile phones, which will impact the organized mobile retailing market badly.

 Union Budget 2013-14, implications for Retail Sector: Highlights of the budget for the Indian Retail SectorUnion Budget 2013-14, implications for Retail Sector: Highlights of the budget for the Indian Retail Sector

Overall, a very average budget for the industry. Nothing big bang about this!

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good analysis

good analysis

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